I've Changed My Mind on Carr's Role in Kimmel's Suspension

My favorite line from John Maynard Keynes (but I’m not sure he even said it) is: “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”

In this case, it’s not so much that the facts changed as that I became aware of facts.

Sean Malone, a friend on Facebook, challenged my claim that Jimmy Kimmel was fired because of FCC chairman Brendan Carr’s threat. He has allowed me to post this. I’ve made a few changes in tense. All times below are in EDT. Here’s Sean:

Kimmel's comments were at 11:35-11:40pm ET on the 16th.

They went viral on social media overnight, and by the early morning everyone was well aware of them.

The execs at both Sinclair and Nexstar are very conservative and it isn't the slightest stretch to assume that 1) they saw his remarks first thing when they woke up, if not the night before (it is obviously in their interest to pay attention to what's going out over the broadcast stations they own); and 2) would have been personally outraged.

I think it's pretty safe to assume they called emergency meetings with their respective teams to discuss what to do first thing in the morning - let's say 9am at the latest.

Carr's podcast appearance and clips weren't published until 1pm on the 17th and wouldn't have been widespread until about 2pm.

News reports of Jimmy's suspension started to go out by 5-6pm.

If the suspension had been driven by Carr's comments on Johnson's podcast, the following would all have had to happen within the span of about 3, maybe 4, hours:

- Executives at 2 separate media conglomerates convene their respective teams, discuss what to do, and make a decision about pre-empting Kimmel.

- They then draft memos and statements and inform ABC/Disney and their other stakeholders of their intention.

- Disney assembles its leadership team and gets Bob Iger out of whatever other meetings he's in and discuss how to respond.

- Disney responds, likely with pleas or negotiation terms, and both Nexstar and Sinclair debate their decisions with Disney.

- Disney also fields dozens of angry advertiser calls and need to factor that into its decision.

- Iger gets Kimmel in a meeting and discusses options. We know Sinclair wanted him to publicly apologize and make a donation to TPUSA. We also know that Kimmel was not only refusing to do that but also wanted to double down on blaming "MAGA" for "misunderstanding" him. I cannot imagine that was a quick conversation.

- Iger has to reconvene with the rest of the team and weigh the cost-benefit considerations, which are rather challenging. Kimmel has a very expensive contract. Disney has no replacement planned for his time slot if he has to go. But on the other hand, his ratings are a disaster if the affiliates are gone, and can they afford millions in lost ad revenue? Heavy is the head that wears the crown, but Iger has to make a call.

- Other staff reach out to reporters and rumors fly, reporters start buzzing around, etc.

- Iger chooses to suspend Jimmy indefinitely while they sort it out.

- Reporters get final details from sources and start writing stories.

- Disney, Nexstar, Sinclair and a bunch of other relevant entities write press releases and prepare statements.

- *Legal* reviews absolutely everything!

- Editors review said stories.

- Stories are packaged for online and possibly print distribution with graphics, headlines, Metadata, and so on. This is a very big story, so I assume lots of eyes are on it, including EICs.

- Online editors set them up in Wordpress/etc. and publish.

- Social media teams start tweeting.

Now everyone knows.

Okay...... So that's even a simplified list. I dunno, but I have a very hard time believing it all took place between 2pm and 6pm.

DRH comment:

If all the above is true, and I think it is, then you might wonder why Brendan Carr would wade into the discussion with his threat.

That’s not hard to understand if you keep in mind that people respond to incentives. Carr wants to show Trump that he’s a good soldier. If he sits back and Kimmel gets canned anyway, Carr doesn’t get credit. But if he jumps on it, he might get credit. Look how I was fooled.

Often people will wonder why politician A will do X when he knows it could hurt his own party. A typically good answer is that politician A has reason to think it will help politician A.